Friday, 6 May 2016

Analysis of Welsh Assembly Elections

"The crisis consists precisely in the fact that the old is dying and the new cannot be born; in this interregnum a great variety of morbid symptoms appear"

Antonio Gramsci

The total votes cast in Wales are are guide to political psychology in Wales not democratic politics given that only 44/45% of the eligible electorate even voted .

The resistible rise of UKIP in Wales and Neil Hamilton getting into Welsh Assembly show the social pathology even the morbidity of current politics in Wales

On the slightly bright side and despite many political disagreements with her Leanne Wood winning in the Rhondda is a personal triumph for her.

With 1.02m constituency votes counted up slightly from 931,000 in 2011 we can review the state of party politics in wales.

That Labour  lost one seat only is surprising given constituency vote share dropped from 43% to 35% (they still managed to beat opposition to win the seats needed).

Plaid saw small increase in constituency vote share, up from 20% to 21%, earlier YouGov/ITV polling suggests they might have pulled in votes from Labour and the Lib Dems.

The Conservatives saw a small fall in constituency vote share (25% to 21%), with support most likely been lost to UKIP.

Ukip got 12% of the vote, gaining 126.175 votes, up from nothing in 2011 as they had no candidates standing in constituencies, pulling in support from former Conservative and, to some extent, Labour voters.

The Lib Dems vote share dropped from 11% to 8%, with General Election Lib Dems least likely to stick with their previous party, potentially jumping ship to Labour and Plaid.

The Greens upped their vote share from 0.2% to 2.5%, with a total of more than 25,000 votes.

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